Abstract
Demand-side factors and openness policies of import countries influence Vietnam’s export significantly. In the context of Covide-19, the unforeseeable changes in these factors led to a sharp reduction in Vietnam’s export. In this study, we utilize one of simple data mining technique, namely, the application of Autoregression Distributed Lag (ARDL), to investigate the effect of average economic growth of Vietnam’s five most important trading partners (the US, the EU, Japan, South Korea, and China), their average tariff and Vietnam’s market share in these markets on Vietnam’s key exports. The empirical result shows that Vietnam’s market share and the openness of five markets have a positive effect on Vietnam’s export in both short term and long term at the 1% of significant level. However, Covid-19 has a reverse influence on Vietnam’s export to the five markets in the long term, leading to decreased revenue of key exports in the important markets. Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of the five markets and tariffs have no effect on Vietnam’s exports in the context of Covid-19.
Keyword
export, VietNam, Covid – 19, ARDL, openness, GDP
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